Julius Randle is an All Star

Julius Randle is having a career year and making a strong case to be an All Star. Randle is averaging a career high in points (23.1), rebounds (11.0), and assists (5.6). He has had immense success developing his jump shot, shooting 13% higher from three than last year. Randle’s 20.9 PER is ahead of players like Jason Tatum, Brandon Ingram, and Chris Paul, and his OBPM of 3.4 is ahead of Bam Adebayo and Donovan Mitchell. Randle’s impact is evident on the court and is backed up via stats. His VORP of 1.6 ranks 11th best in the NBA, ahead of Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving. Randle’s win shares of 3.6 is 10th best in the NBA, more than MVP candidate Luka Doncic. Randle, who throughout his career has never been known to be a strong defensive player, always having a negative DBPM, has reinvented himself under Thibedeau, having the fourth best defensive win shares at 1.7, more than last year's DPOY, Giannis Antetokounmpo. Randle’s efforts have led to the Knicks being the 6th seed, the best start since the 2012-13 season. Julius Randle is leading the NBA in minutes and has been the main benefactor from Thib’s coaching style. While he may not be the flashiest player, his impact has made him very deserving of an All Star spot.

Derrick Rose’s Prime is Overrated

Recently I have seen many polls saying that Derrick Rose had a better prime than Stephen Curry. I am here to put this narrative to rest. I will be comparing both of their best seasons by their per 100 possession stats, which accounts for the adaptation of the games pace. Per 100, in 2010-11, Derrick Rose averaged 35.6 points, 10.9 assists, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.2 steals on 44-33-85 shooting splits. In 2015-16, Steph Curry averaged 42.5 points, 9.4 assists, 7.7 assists, and 3 steals, on 50-45-90 splits. During these seasons both players had a defensive rating of 103, but Curry’s offensive rating of 125, was much higher than Rose’s 113. The stats advantage goes to Curry, but the difference is not drastic, unlike their advanced metrics. Rose had a total BPM of 6.8, (6.3 OBPM and 0.5 DBPM). Curry’s number are nearly double, a total 11.9 BPM, (10.3 OBPM and 1.6 DBPM). Curry has a higher VORP of 9.5, compared to Rose’s 6.7. Curry had a win share of 17.9, more than Rose’s 13.1. Both players in their seasons had a usage rate of 32.6%, with very similar turnover percentages. Lastly, Curry had a PER of 31.5 and a true shooting of 66.9%, both way higher than Rose’s 23.5 PER, and 55% true shooting. I think Derrick Rose was a fantastic player and should be in consideration for the Hall of Fame, however, the narrative that his prime was better than Steph Curry’s is foolish.

Lamelo Ball is Already Better Than Lonzo

Through 18 games, Lamelo Ball has made a serious argument of being the best Ball brother. Lamelo is currently a rookie and is on limited minutes, so I am comparing them per 100 possessions. Lamelo leads Lonzo in all main categories, averaging 22 points, 11.5 assists, and 11.8 rebounds, compared to 15.8 points, 9.4 assists, and 8.7 rebounds from Lonzo. Both of them have the same career defensive box plus/minuses at 1.0, however Lamelo has a much higher offensive box plus/minus at 0.5, which is more than Lonzo who is a below average offensive player at -0.7. Overall, Lamelo has been an above average and efficient NBA player at 1.5 box plus/minus, whereas Lonzo is below league average at -0.1. Lamelo has a higher career field goal percentage, three point percentage, and free throw percentage. Lamelo’s PER of 16.1, is far more impressive than Lonzo’s mere 12.4 PER. My main concern with Lonzo is his lack of confidence. When watching Lonzo, he gets timid to finish, only taking 13.8% of his total shots by the rim, far too low for a 6’6 point guard. Lonzo is on the last year of his rookie contract, and during this summers restricted free agency, his value is certainly up in the air.

Has Ben Simmons Improved?

Ben Simmons has recently been in many talks determining his value, especially with the James Harden trade rumors.

Ben Simmons is currently averaging a career low in points (13.0) and field goal percentage (52.6%), while hovering around the same averages for other stats. Since his rookie season, he has not improved, and has possibly became worse. During his rookie campaign, Ben Simmons had a +6.9 plus minus per 100 possessions, compared to a 5.2 plus minus this year. Compare these to Joel Embiid, who during these years had a +11.4 in 2017-18, and currently has a +12.1 this year. Simmons at the rim efficiency has declined, where he shoots around 55% of his shots from. The main critique for Simmons has been his lack of an outside shot, which has not seen real change, only attempting .35 attempts per game this year, on 16.7% efficiency. On paper, there is no evidence of improvement by Simmons, and the eye test agrees too, seeming uninterested at times during games, which can be shown via him attempting 3.5 less attempts per game this year from his rookie year. Ben Simmons win share per 48 minutes has decreased since his rookie year to a career low, .136. A significant telling of regression is Ben’s usage percentage lowering 3.2%, yet his turnover percentage increased 4.1%. Possibly the most surprising decrease is his offensive box plus/minus. In his rookie season Simmons had a 2.0 OBPM, which has plummeted to a 0.1, which means he is not even an above average offensive player. His PER was 20 for his rookie year, falling down to 17.5, which is 84th best in the league. Though the seasons is still in its early stages, seeing regression from a player with an 177 million dollar contract is alarming.